Progressive overload in plain numbers

Progressive overload is the least exciting idea in lifting and the one everything else rests on. Your body adapts to what you ask of it. Once it has adapted, the same work stops being much of a reason to change. So over weeks and months, you ask for a little more.

That is the whole principle. The useful part is the arithmetic: how much more, of what, and how often. This post works through it with example sets.

What “a little more” can mean

There are only a few levers, and your log already records all of them:

• Load: the weight on the bar. 10x40 becomes 10x42.5.
• Reps: the same weight for more reps. 8x40 becomes 10x40.
• Sets: another set of the same work. Three sets of 10x40 become four.

Load is the one people think of first, and for good reason. But it is not the only way to progress, and on some exercises it is not even the practical one. More on that below.

How big is a 2.5 kg jump?

The American College of Sports Medicine position stand on progression gives a simple rule of thumb: when you can do one or two reps more than your target with the current load, increase the load by 2 to 10 percent. Smaller increases suit exercises that use small muscles; larger ones suit big lifts.

Here is what a standard 2.5 kg jump looks like in percentages:

The squat jump sits comfortably at the low end of that range. The row jump is in the middle. The lateral raise jump is twice the top of it, and that is why so many people “stall” on small exercises: the next dumbbell is simply too big a step. (That table uses 2 kg for the dumbbell, the usual spacing of fixed dumbbells and the step Liftorra uses. If your rack jumps 2.5 kg, the percentage is bigger still.)

When the step is that large, reps are the better lever.

Reps count as overload too

A common worry is that adding reps is a lesser kind of progress, something to do while you wait to add weight. The evidence does not really support that.

In an 8-week trial of 43 people with at least a year of lower body training, one group added load while keeping reps the same, and the other kept the load and added reps. Both groups trained four sets of four lower body exercises twice a week. The results were close: growth of one thigh muscle (rectus femoris) slightly favoured the reps group, Smith machine squat strength slightly favoured the load group, and the authors described the differences as of questionable practical significance. Their conclusion was that both kinds of progression appear to be viable.

One trial is one trial, and eight weeks is short. But it fits what the position stand implies: more work than last time is the point, whichever number moves.

Double progression: both levers, in order

Double progression uses reps first and load second. You pick a rep range, say 8 to 12, and a starting weight you can lift for at least 8 on every set.

1. Keep the weight the same and try to add reps each session.
2. When every set reaches the top of the range, add the smallest weight step you have: usually 2.5 kg on a barbell or machine, 2 kg on dumbbells.
3. The reps drop back towards the bottom of the range. Start climbing again.

In a log, three sets of a row over a few weeks look like this:

Week 1  10x37.5, 9x37.5, 8x37.5
Week 2  11x37.5, 10x37.5, 9x37.5
Week 3  12x37.5, 11x37.5, 10x37.5
Week 4  12x37.5, 12x37.5, 12x37.5
Week 5  10x40, 9x40, 8x40
Week 6  11x40, 10x40, 9x40

In week 4 every set reaches the top of the range, so week 5 adds 2.5 kg and the reps drop back down.

Nothing in that log is dramatic. Week 5 even looks worse than week 4 at a glance, with fewer reps. It is not: the load went up, and the estimated one-rep max with it. At 37.5 kg the best set was 12 reps; at 40 kg the first set is 10. An estimated one-rep max with the Epley formula puts 12x37.5 at 52.5 kg and 10x40 at 53.3 kg, so the heavier, shorter set is the better one.

For the lateral raise with its 20 percent jump, widen the range instead. Climb from 12 to 20 reps with the 10 kg dumbbells, and only then move to 12 kg.

When the numbers stop moving

Every log eventually has a stretch where the same row repeats: 12x40, 11x40, 10x40 for three or four sessions in a row. Before changing the program, look at what the log can tell you:

• Is it really flat? A rep here and there is still progress. So is the same reps with the last set feeling easier.
• Is the jump too big? If you added 2.5 kg and lost three reps per set for weeks, widen the range or use smaller plates if the gym has them.
• Is everything else steady? Short sleep, eating less to lose weight or a stressful month can all sit behind a flat stretch, and the log is where you can line them up.

Stalls are normal. They are information, not failure, and they are much easier to read when last session’s numbers are in front of you.

Why write it down at all

Progressive overload depends on one number: what you did last time. You cannot add a rep to a set you do not remember. Without a log it is easy to repeat comfortable weights for months, not out of laziness, but because “about 40, I think” is not a target.

That is also the simplest test of a training log: does it show you the number to beat, at the moment you need it?

Questions

Log the numbers, beat the numbers

Liftorra prefills every set with last session’s weight and reps, so the number to beat is already on the row. Type 10x40 to log it, and your records per lift (heaviest weight, estimated one-rep max and best session volume) update as you go. It is free and has no ads: open Liftorra. For the arithmetic, the 1RM and plate calculators do the percentages for you.

Sources

• American College of Sports Medicine. Progression models in resistance training for healthy adults. Medicine and Science in Sports and Exercise, 2009.
• Plotkin D, Coleman M, Van Every D, et al. Progressive overload without progressing load? The effects of load or repetition progression on muscular adaptations. PeerJ, 2022.

How this post was made. Every claim links to its source. Drafts may be written with AI help; each one is checked against the linked studies and reviewed by the person who runs Liftorra before it is published. Spotted a mistake? Write to hello@liftorra.com.